El mirador EL MIRADOR (ENGLISH VERSION)

Covid19 mortality. Unvaccinated versus fully vaccinated

(Updated 2nd. ov. 2021)

 

 

1. You know nothing about epidemiology or public health
2. You hate scientific English
3. You examine the chart published by the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) of the United States
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
4. You manage to control your distaste for charts, numbers, and scientific English.
5. You overcome your nausea and spend some time evaluating the chart.
6. You deduce that are graphically exposed the results of deaths by covid in the United States throughout the year 2021.
7. You realize that the results are given in deaths per 100,000 and according to age groups (12 to 17 years, 18 to 29, etc).
8. You deduce that “unvaccinated” means without vaccine and “fully vaccinated” means with vaccine.
9. You jump at the obvious, that the “unvaccinated” die in far greater numbers than the “vaccinated” (more than ten times), and in all age groups.
10. You infer that covid19 vaccines prevent deaths (or “save lives”, as the experts like to say).
11. You rush to get vaccinated against covid19 (if you have not already done so) or, if you have already been vaccinated, you rush to get re-vaccinated (so that you will die less).
12. You are wrong
13. You have deduced what they want you to deduce.
14. You have been made a fool of
15. You have correctly deduced that the “unvaccinated” die more from covid19, but you have been mistaken in believing that it is from lack of vaccination
16. You have fallen into a trap
17. You have failed to realize that this graph is skewed (or misrepresented, if done on purpose)
18. You believe that the only difference between “non-vaccinated” and “vaccinated” is that the former have not had any covid19 vaccine, and the latter have had some covid19 vaccine correctly.
19. You have not noticed that the comparison is not “corrected”, e.g. to avoid the selection bias of better health, and it could be that the healthier ones were vaccinated more
20. You have not noticed that the comparison is not “corrected” for morbidity, medication, ethnicity, poverty, marginalization, illiteracy, etc. and it could be, for example, that obese people taking “stomach protectors” would vaccinate less (and those two factors increase the probability of death from covid19) (1).
21. You have believed that covid19 vaccines are de facto given with equity (that they are received by those who need them the most).
22. You believe that if vaccination is ordered for those who need it most, in practice those who need it most are vaccinated
23. You have assumed that the comparison between “unvaccinated” and “vaccinated” was fair, honest, unbiased,
24. You ignore the fact that among the vaccinated there are many more people with a history of having had the disease, covid19, which generates very strong and persistent defenses, enhanced by vaccination.
25. You are unaware that the CDC has a long history of manipulating data and graphs.
26. You ignore that the CDC also manipulated flu mortality by “unvaccinated” versus “vaccinated”, and showed that the flu vaccine prevented 50% of all deaths from all causes during the winter, even though the flu itself causes at most 5% of them (an impossible and ridiculous result) (2).
27. You ignore that in general those who are in better health, who, in addition, have more healthy habits, better living conditions, greater concern for health, are wealthier and have higher educational levels, better jobs and live in “healthier” communities and neighborhoods, are more vaccinated (3-5).
28. You ignore that, as in almost every preventive activity, equity in vaccines is not met; prevention moves resources from sick to healthy, from poor to rich, from illiterate to university students, from blacks to whites and from sick to healthy.
29. You, in short, cannot deduce anything from the CDC’s spectacular graph because it says nothing practical about the effectiveness of covid19 vaccines.

Then, as you are a curious reader, having passed the test of analyzing a CDC graph from the United States, you dare to take a look at the data from the United Kingdom. There, too, covid19 vaccines are almost miraculous, preventing up to 99% of mortality.


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1025358/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-41.pdf

The amazing thing is that with these miracle covid19 vaccines, in the same United Kingdom, with almost 50 million people vaccinated, they are having an outbreak of covid19 with a dramatic increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Synthesis

The covid19 vaccines seem great, miraculous, with an effectiveness of more than 90%, but surprisingly they do not control the pandemic. In factc, people vaccinated against COVID are less likely to die from any cause, so they must be mandatory to avoid any death and clinicians should be skeptical when interpreting results of observational studies of preventive services that have not accounted for healthy user and related biases. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm

Given the cases of outbreaks in vaccinated countries, such as the United Kingdom (Chile, Israel and others), a booster dose of covid19 vaccines is being imposed (6).

The effectiveness over the months for the risk of infection clearly declines. At six months such immunity drops to levels of 3% if Janssen, 47% if AstraZeneca, 50% if Pfizer and 64% if Moderna (7,8).

In Spain, in the group of persons residing in elderly centers, the effectiveness is maintained in July at values above 96% against infection, symptomatic infection, hospitalization and death, in those vaccinated from May onwards. In those vaccinated in March, effectiveness decreased in July to 58%, 64%, 65% and 77% for infection, symptomatic infection, hospitalization and death, respectively (9).

In Israel, where a “covid passport” is in effect, such a document is considered expired six months after the second dose of vaccine, and without a booster dose, passport privileges are lost (10).

In other words, it is accepted as a matter of fact that the vaccine lasts at most six months.

As in Israel, all countries continue to glorify the covid19 vaccines, but in the face of their resounding failure, they act without explanation or contemplation and impose re-vaccinations after six months.

Incidentally, Israel has already warned of a probable re-re-vaccination (fourth dose) (11).

In the report of week 42 of the Public Health Agency of the United Kingdom, a higher risk of infection was demonstrated in vaccinated patients than in unvaccinated patients. It could be that as vaccine effectiveness declined, infection was easier (12). In the report of week 43 there is a footnote in table 5 noting that “Comparing case rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 infection” (12 bis).

In Sweden, total population of the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine was, in respect to protection against infection below 50% after 4 months Pfizer, below 60% Moderna; no protection measurable after 4 months (AstraZeneca) and 7 months (Pfizer). Protection against severe covid and deaths 42% after 6 months although not for men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, asthma, etc) (13).;

Can you imagine what it is like to re-vaccinate and re-re-vaccinate mankind every six months, the effort in logistics and organization, the cost and the discredit of vaccines?
Is it not time to contractually demand that the industries repair the damage, assume the costs and improve the vaccines?

References

1.- Relation of severe COVID-19 to polypharmacy and prescribing of psychotropic drugs: the REACT-SCOT case-control study
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-021-01907-8

2.- Influenza: marketing vaccine by marketing disease
https://www.bmj.com/content/346/bmj.f3037

3.- Another study shows limited flu vaccine benefits in seniors
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/03/another-study-shows-limited-flu-vaccine-benefits-seniors

4.- Healthy-vaccinated effect
https://www.cmaj.ca/content/190/27/E838

5.- Healthy User Bias: The Fatal Flaw in Vaccine Safety Research
http://vaccinepapers.org/healthy-user-bias-why-most-vaccine-safety-studies-are-wrong/

6.- Covid19. Sobre revacunar con tercera dosis, o con una nueva vacuna.
https://www.actasanitaria.com/covid19-sobre-revacunar-con-tercera-dosis-o-con-una-nueva-vacuna/

7.- Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections in 620,000 U.S. Veterans, February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1

8.- Vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection of Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax against mild and severe COVID-19 in the UK.
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/Vaccine+effectiveness+and+duration+of+protection+of+covid+vaccines+against+mild+and+severe+COVID-19+in+the+UK.pdf/10dcd99c-0441-0403-dfd8-11ba2c6f5801

9.- Análisis de la efectividad de la vacunación frente a COVID-19 en España
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/prevPromocion/vacunaciones/covid19/docs/Efectividad_VacunacionCOVID-19_Espana.pdf

10.- Israel will require a booster shot to be considered fully vaccinated.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/03/world/israel-covid-booster.html

11.- Israel Is Preparing for Possible Fourth Covid Vaccine Dose.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-12/israel-preparing-for-possible-fourth-covid-vaccine-dose

12.- COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week42 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/102 

12 bis.- COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 43.  https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029606/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-43.pdf 

13.- Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccination Against Risk of Symptomatic Infection, Hospitalization, and Death Up to 9 Months: A Swedish Total-Population Cohort Study

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3949410

 

Gérvas, Juan

M.D., Ph.D., retired rural general practitioner, Equipo CESCA, Madrid, Spain. Ex-professor School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA [email protected] https://t.me/gervassalud